It is depressing how often pessimism proves itself the most accurate forecast in the Middle East. Prime Minister al-Maliki should be gone now, in the best interests of Iraq. He is not. The temptation that power represents is a consistent challenge to humans; history and philosophy leave us in no doubt of that. It is a shame that al-Malaki could not overcome it for the good of his people. Now that Shia Iraq has rallied itself to stop ISIS (now just the Islamic State, or IS), it is Iraq’s minorities that shall suffer next.
IS has taken over the primary towns of Iraq’s remaining Christian population, as well as the Yazidi religious minority. Both face some combination of rape, torture, slavery, and death if caught. (Can I again mention that IS is a truly vile organization?) An uncertain number (probably around 40,000-50,000) of Yazidi refugees are trapped on Mount Sinjar and face genocide without immediate aid. Even President Obama, hardly a man known for boldness or taking action or making a decision, has authorized limited assistance and airstrikes to hinder IS. But to what end?
The Islamic State is not going away do to a major international ground invasion. Al-Maliki needs to go for mainstream Sunni Iraq to see its future as being with Shia Iraq. That has not happened, so it probably won’t happen any time soon. Therefore, the best that can be expected is containing IS. So now that Obama has actually made a decision, we should see limited humanitarian assistance and airstrikes sufficient to stiffen Kurdish defenses against further IS advances. Many Yazidi people will never make it off their mountain without more assistance that it currently appears they will receive. That assistance should be increased immediately. Hopefully this will happen, but trying to save 50,000 people trapped on a mountain, isolated save for the merciless army trying to slaughter them, at the eleventh hour… it is a very tall order. Even with full political support it is very hard. This may end very badly. I dearly hope it will not. But it could.
The other refugees are in a better situation. That really isn’t saying much, but at least they aren’t trapped on a mountain of death. With Obama, though, you really don’t know if US airstrikes will last. The Iraqi Kurds and Christians and Yazidi and other minorities need them to last. Airstrikes mark a new chapter in the Iraqi Civil War. Whether this new chapter includes Kurdish forces pushing IS forces back under cover of US airstrikes and genocide averted or it merely sees a temporary setback to IS and the death of thousands or tens of thousands of Iraqi minorities remains to be seen.